migueltorrescosta

On average, forecasts by migueltorrescosta:

Are 26% away from the existing consensus.
Move the consensus by 20%.
Should be scaled 0.896 times towards 50%
Should be scaled 0.741 times towards the popular consensus

Strongest Beliefs

Below we can see the user forecast vs popular consensus.

20% vs 48%		Trump will be president for a second term
70% vs 55%		The value of S&P 500 will be above Pre-COVID values by the 31st December 2020
70% vs 64%		Linux based Operative Systems will have a larger Market Share than Microsoft by 2050
70% vs 71%		Facebook will not be the largest Social Network by the 31st December 2030, as measured by Monthly Active users
95% vs 95%		China's 2020 actions against Uighurs are in violation of UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights

Submitted Quests

30%		China will reach carbon neutrality by 2060
70%		Apple will create a Search Engine which will be available via browser before the 31st December 2021
50%		Before the 31st December 2021, Apple will allow Epic Games to submit its apps in the App Store while paying a fee strictly lower than 25% for all transactions
99%		Assigning primary school kids the sole responsibility of keeping ther school clean has a net positive value on their education
95%		China's 2020 actions against Uighurs are in violation of UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights
75%		Facebook will not be the largest Social Network by the 31st December 2030, as measured by Monthly Active users
99%		By 2030, European countries which shared either their tax returns or salaries publicly since 2025 or earlier, will have less pay inequality, on average, measured both in terms of gender pay gap and the gini inequality index
40%		The closing Market Cap of Facebook by the 31st December 2020 will be above 600 Billion US Dollars
27%		Trump will be president for a second term
60%		Hadwiger's conjecture in Graph Theory is true
73%		The value of S&P 500 will be above Pre-COVID values by the 31st December 2020
66%		Linux based Operative Systems will have a larger Market Share than Microsoft by 2050

Submitted Data Sources

Source	Prediction
Universal Declaration of human Rights	China's 2020 actions against Uighurs are in violation of UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights	30th July, 2020, 14:05
Bar Human Rights Committee of England and Whales Report	China's 2020 actions against Uighurs are in violation of UN's Universal Declaration of Human Rights	30th July, 2020, 14:04
Gini inequality Index Definition	By 2030, European countries which shared either their tax returns or salaries publicly since 2025 or earlier, will have less pay inequality, on average, measured both in terms of gender pay gap and the gini inequality index	20th July, 2020, 11:04
Danai Christopoulou essay on the impacts of having public tax returns	By 2030, European countries which shared either their tax returns or salaries publicly since 2025 or earlier, will have less pay inequality, on average, measured both in terms of gender pay gap and the gini inequality index	20th July, 2020, 11:04
Facebook Market Cap @ MacroTrends	The closing Market Cap of Facebook by the 31st December 2020 will be above 600 Billion US Dollars	20th July, 2020, 10:29
Hadwiger Conjecture Statement	Hadwiger's conjecture in Graph Theory is true	17th July, 2020, 13:12
OS Market Share comparison	Linux based Operative Systems will have a larger Market Share than Microsoft by 2050	17th July, 2020, 12:50