The value of S&P 500 will be above Pre-COVID values by the 31st December 2020

This quest has been submitted by migueltorrescosta on the 17th July, 2020. Currently it aggregates the predictions of 4 forecasters. The average forecast sits at 55% ± 23% and the expert consensus sits at 73%. Related questions exist under #s&p500 #stock markets #covid-19 #2020 .


70%
migueltorrescosta 27th August, 2020, 11:09

The current value is already above Pre Covid levels, with the only deterrent to this becoming true being the possibility of a second wave hitting and lowering the S&P500 around the New Years.
This currently seems unlikely.

50%
davidmartins 23rd July, 2020, 11:19

I assume that the premise is that the value on the 31st December will be higher than the February peak (2393), as opposed to surpassing the peak at any point until the 31st December.

Given the actions of the Fed, as well as the fact that the value is almost there, it seems likely to happen. That said, depending on whether holiday spending is weak, if there is a COVID resurgence, and what is the result of the election, there is a decent probability of a pullback.

81%
Ricardo 22nd July, 2020, 13:40

Currently, it is already at about 95% of Pre-Covid value. Expectations have adapted, and despite intrinsic frailties in the real economy, a large chunk of S&P is driven by passive investment flows which by their own nature don't lead to price discovery.

Unless catastrophic events take place, I imagine a continued stock market upswing.

21%
CharlesMilk 22nd July, 2020, 7:50


Relevant Data Sources

Add New Source

Source