Forecasting Tips



Build up your history

Users with fewer forecasts can happen to be right out of luck, just like Paul the Octopus. Users with longer histories are more reliable, and we weight and rank users accordingly: A slightly above average forecaster with 1000 forecasts is more convincing than a superstar forecaster who only made 10 forecasts. As such start forecasting away! In the beginning both correct and incorrect forecasts will improve your metrics.

Find your area of expertise

As you build up your track record, you can better understand which areas you are better at forecasting at and which ones other people are better at. Focus on your strengths and your score will increase accordingly.

Replicate the forecasts of other experts

If you trust someone's opinion on a given topic, you can boost your own scores by replicating their forecasts. This is an easy way to make better forecasts, and by trusting the right people you are also providing new information, in the form of an endorsement of other people's forecasts.

Focus on objective statements

There are ill defined statements like "Capitalism is better than Socialism" while others such as "A baby will be born in Mars before 2100" have a clear outcome. By focusing on questions which, eventually, will have an undisputable yes/no answer, you will not expose yourself to outcome uncertainty.

Know when to change beliefs

In the section Strong Beliefs of your profile you can have a quick overview of the topics where your forecast most differs from the current consensus. This is an opportunity to evaluate how sure you are of a certain outcome or whether you must study it better to be sure you are not missing any new information, which would point to the opposite outcome.

Are we missing the best tips?

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