Users with fewer forecasts can happen to be right out of luck, just like Paul the Octopus. Users with longer histories are more
reliable, and we weight and rank users accordingly: A slightly above average forecaster with 1000 forecasts is more
convincing than a superstar forecaster who only made 10 forecasts. As such start forecasting away! In the
beginning both correct and incorrect forecasts will improve your metrics.
Find your area of expertise
As you build up your track record, you can better understand which areas you are better at forecasting at and which
ones other people are better at. Focus on your strengths and your score will increase accordingly.
Replicate the forecasts of other experts
If you trust someone's opinion on a given topic, you can boost your own scores by replicating their forecasts. This
is an easy way to make better forecasts, and by trusting the right people you are also providing new information, in
the form of an endorsement of other people's forecasts.
Focus on objective statements
There are ill defined statements like "Capitalism is better than Socialism" while others such as "A baby
will be born in Mars before 2100" have a clear outcome. By focusing on questions which, eventually, will
have an undisputable yes/no answer, you will not expose yourself to outcome uncertainty.
Know when to change beliefs
In the section Strong Beliefs of your profile you can have a quick overview of the topics where your forecast most
differs from the current consensus. This is an opportunity to evaluate how sure you are of a certain outcome or
whether you must study it better to be sure you are not missing any new information, which would point to the
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