Our guiding problemAs the world grows interconnected, diverging opinions are brought into public display. The intellectual debates that ensue are fundamental in the search of truth. Unfortunately, for anyone needing to act on incomplete information, it is often hard to know who to trust, be it because people have honest yet divergent beliefs, or because there are private interests at play that work to change public opinion against their own interests.
Working towards a solutionAt Quest Powered we believe that problems are opportunities, and the problem of organizing information is fascinating. With this starting point, we want to define a way of gathering everyone's opinion into humanity's overall belief.
Your questsThe first step towards getting information is defining what information you want to know, i.e. your Quest. You might be interested in whether "Kanye West will be the next US President", "Electrical Vehicle Sales will surpass gas by 2040" or any other question that sparks your interest. Once you know your quest, anyone in the world can submit their opinions and likelihood of it becoming true. Our work lies in keeping everyone's forecast in order to give you the best information available and in the process reduce future uncertainty.
EqualityA key idea underlying our work lies in the fact that everyone has an equal say in the odds of something happening. This is not to say that the consensus treats everyone the same. Doctors are trusted with our health because their education made them more able at treating us. Similarly, some people are more accurate forecasters, and as such we keep that in mind when aggregating individual opinions. In particular, for any quest, we find it useful to compare the Popular Consensus which takes everyone's forecast equally, and the Expert consensus, where we take into account the performance of different individuals to give you the best possible forecast.
The path forwardThere are three main types of knowledge we focus on:
- Descriptive Power consists on the ability to explain past events. This is essential for understanding the future, however it is unreliable because conflicting stories can and have been built around the same set of past events.
- Predictive Power consists on forecasting the future. Good forecasters can be trusted with their understanding of the world, since the ability to know what will happen in the future depends on a good understanding of how the world works.
- Prescriptive Power consists on making the best decisions for our future benefit. This not only requires forecasting ability, but also understanding how our own actions affect future outcomes.
We at Quest Powered focus on Predictive Power and uncertainty reduction so that you can exercise your Decision Making with certainty that you are doing the best for yourself, your company and your society.